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Housing market heating up in Church Hill
10/18/2013 10:17 AM by John M
Pricing typo aside, the zillow page for this house has some interesting info about the Church Hill real estate market:
Zillow predicts Church Hill home values will increase 1.4% next year, compared to a 0.2% decrease for Richmond as a whole. […]
Foreclosures will be a factor impacting home values in the next several years. In the Church Hill market, the number of foreclosures waiting to be sold fell 14.2% in the last year. The number of unsold foreclosures is 50.9% less than in Richmond, and 89.5% lower than the national average. This lower local number could help Church Hill home values rise more quickly than other regions in Richmond.
That’s an awesome house on a great block!
A 1.4% projected annual increase is somehow characterized as “heating up”? Inflation is very low right now, but still running around 2% per annum. So Zillow are, in fact, effectively projecting that housing values here will deteriorate, albeit potentially less severely than in other areas.
It might just be hyper inflation but the listing above has three commas and is just south of $23 Million Dollars
Ah… first time through I just read the text and didn’t look at the image — and missed the joke. It’s still disappointing to hear such a lousy projection for home values.
It’s a nice house and all but I wouldn’t go a penny above 18 million for it.
Depending on whether captn’ buzzy’s gets their SUP, that house could fluctuate by millions!
Historically Church Hill homes have slower sales than other areas of the City. That’s the opinion of real estate agents I know. But, with the influx of new businesses that should change. With the great bakeries and restaurants opening here I can’t imagine values won’t rise. People interested in starting a restaurant now see that if they offer good food folks will flock here.
Last week zillow predicted that Church Hill would rise 3% and Overall Richmond at 1.4%. Guess the government shut down took the wind out of our sails!
Zillow forecasts change pretty often (and aren’t all that accurate either) so I wouldn’t read all that much into that number.
However, I do think the housing market is about to cool down. The only thing that’s been fueling it has been super low interest rates. As rates trend upwards, expect selling prices to fall correspondingly.
I’m not a big believer that perpetually fast rising house prices are a good thing anyway. Most people trade up over their lifetime so lower prices are a good because your next house will cost less. Also high prices mean we need to pay more to house folks who can’t afford it. Unless you’re a realtor, hope for prices to stay low. Obviously this is only true on a macro level.
It’s great when your current neighborhood gains relatively, which we are seeing and should continue to see as long as new businesses keep making the neighborhood more vibrant.
I was able to sell my house in Church Hill in 13 days, with three interested parties all willing to make bids. And I lived on the 800 block – you know, the “bad” side. The market in CH isn’t that bad. Although, the things that are priced over their value inevitably take longer to sell until the price comes down.
@13 – you sold? Does that mean you moved out to the suburbs to send your kids to a decent school too?
Of all the folks on here, you were the last I figured for a suburb flight risk. What’s next, a wedding and a little McMansion out in Short Pump? Starting to shop at Martin’s? Voting Republican?
All kidding aside, we’ve rarely agreed on anything but at least you had a good argument for everything. I’ll miss having your perspective around here if you guys have indeed packed up and moved off the Hill.
Zillow has never seen your house…they don’t know what is inside, the changes you’ve made or the finishes that have been used. They use the data that is available to them. The home’s and neighborhood sales data, the city assessor’s data, and many complex algorithms to provide a forecast within a very, very large range in many cases. I would put more faith in the city assessor data than zillow. And even the assessor has never seen the interior of many city properties. Where I find Zestimates to be be extermely inaccurate, are homes that have not transferred in many years and those that have been extensively renovated Renovations that required permits will usually show up in assessment data in future years. There are several homes in Church Hill that look very ordinary and consistent with the rest of the neighborhood on the exterior but have great, sometimes knockout, finishes on the inside. These will sell for much more than the surrounding properties. But, it will take the sale of the property for both Zillow and assessor data to catch up.
Zillow is chronically wrong. They do not even have current info on vacant lots. On the 1400 bl0ck of N 22nd there are 6 vacant lots, but it only knows about a few and even those are all over priced.
But I guess they base it off the city info. Seriously, how can the city even suggest that the lots in that area are worth 22k when I cannot find a vacant lot that has sold for that much ever for about 5 blocks in each direction. Or even half of that…
We should have a system like the one in PA where what for it is the assessed value until you sell or refinance.
the city is more than happy to use the sale price as the assessed value if the house is sold for over what the current assessment is, but if it is under, you are stuck with the current assessment until the next July when you can appeal the assessment. I have to do mine every year since they are constantly trying to raise it.
Meanwhile my neighbor has had the same assessment for the last 10 years.
The house mentioned in #2 went under contract after only 4 days on the market and for above the asking price. Great news for the neighborhood!