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Ronald Bond will not be our next council representative
A recent snapshot poll on this site taken over the past week shows an apparent dead heat among four of the candidates for the City Council 7th District seat, with Lewis, Newbille, Robinson, Powell, and UNDECIDED all grabbing 20% of the vote (give or take). What do the results really indicate?
This poll is interesting, and maybe accurate in it’s own way though I would hesitate to take the numbers at face value. I’ve run polls before, and they have been fantastically wrong. This historical disconnect between predictions and reality can simply be chalked up to the fact that this site is not equally accessed through the greater Church Hill area. I know that my traffic has grown a bit since 2006, and anecdotally it seems that the readership is more geographically diverse. There is still the sense, though, that there is an imbalance.
Let’s look at some numbers. A similar poll taken in 2006 in the McQuinn v Malone contest for this same seat showed Mr.Malone taking 77% of the vote. On election day, Mr.Malone actually capture 43% of the vote.
The same 2006 poll results for the school board seat might be more informative. That poll showed: Ronald Bond 8%, Donald Coleman 21%, Delores Murray 13%, Keith West 45%, and UNDECIDED 13%. West did go on win that very close election with 32% of the vote. Coleman and Murray were only a few votes behind.
There are more unknowns in the current race, but we might be able to draw some parallels. Like Murray, Newbille is the establishment candidate – REA endorsement, likely endorsement by the Richmond Democrats, support from other politicians. Like Coleman, Robinson is a credible challenger with ties to the community. Running from the Broad Street corridor, both Lewis and Powell are vying to for the Keith West spot.
Kenney and Bond have both run before and neither appears to be gaining any more traction this time around.
There are differences here. Newbille has potentially more baggage than Murray but is also substantially more qualified. Robinson doesn’t have the organization that Coleman had, but seems to be getting more support across the board.
For some perspective on Lewis & Powell, we have to look at how West won. I missed the meat of that race, but I do remember that he had a ton of signs all over the neighborhood. I’ve also heard people say that they thought that he was black; I’m not sure what to make of that. Statistically, West dominated voting precinct 701 and then took his winning margin out of the closer numbers in 705 – the two most southern precincts in the district. He also out polled Coleman in 701 and 702, the two most northern of the precincts. (7th District voting precinct maps)
As of right now, though, it doesn’t look like either of these two candidates will be pulling many votes north of Q Street. Ride down Mosby Street or Fairmount Avenue, or up Mechanicsville Turnpike, and there is a sea of McQuinn signs paired with signs for Ms.Newbille and Ms.Robinson in people’s front yards. No Lewis, no Powell, and Mr.Bond’s only signs in front of the corner store and on the public median.
I can’t be all CNN/NBC/etc and say there is a leader within x%. I do think though that there are pretty clearly two front runners, though, and not much precedent for a surprise here.
You’re right about the major contenders. Regarding the School Board elections, I don’t believe West would have had a chance going up against Coleman alone. West won because Coleman and Murray split votes to some degree. And yes, West having signs everywhere helped. If either Lewis or Powell are to have a chance, one would need to drop out (I’ve met neighbors who are friends with both and are torn between the two) and the one left standing would need to plaster signs throughout the district and make the rounds. Newbille, like you said, is well known but has baggage. Robinson is a major contender because she is a native of the 7th district, has made her way around, has signs up, and crosses all the lines. One word about Lewis: a neighbor told me she has seen Lewis at every community type meeting, whether in the neighborhood or downtown but she did add, she is undecided and needs more information. I’m also still undecided. I very well might make up my mind on the way to the polls.
John, I can track the stats of where visitors come from on my site – the CHPN link visitors are as far away as Dalton, Georgia, Dallas, Texas and Wisconsin. You are well read!
My signs went out everywhere today. From Libby Hill up to Nine Mile and will be in Fulton, Union Hill and the Bottom tomorrow. If any pop up in a front yard that was NOT on my list please send me an email and I’ll drop by and pick it up. My gentlemen had pretty clear instructions but mistakes do happen. No offence intended – deanna@deannalewis4council.com
I do go to all of the meetings, stay through the entire meeting and will continute to do so when I am elected. I consider the district “as a whole” but each has their own particular issues – what applies on Broad is not what is going on in Union Hill, Fulton has issues that don’t apply to Shocko Bottom and so on. No one can really know what is going on in such a large and diverse area without being on the ground and in touch.
neighborhood1st – Tomorrow please join me (and bring your neighbor) at It Must be Heaven – for a Meet & Greet with me & Henry O. Brown, Candidate for Delegate – Friday 5:00-7:00pm, Oct. 23rd – Come & enjoy some great food, the best ice cream around and get to know us. 2505 E. Broad Street
Oh your signs went out “everywhere” all right- including smack in the middle of my front lawn. No, you didn’t have my endorsement, No, you didn’t have my permission, Yes I was pissed off, and Yes, it went right in the trash.
Your campaign “staff” had to walk up on my front porch and 8 feet out into the middle of my flowerbed to plant your “sign”. I am fairly sure that’s illegal, and it certainly didn’t persuade me to vote for you.
Zing!
Nah taloose… sorry to disappoint… no zing.
Posts left in the “heat of the moment” are most often “heated”, for want of a better word.
Katherine and I shook hands via email last night around midnight and honestly, we both feel better. Mistakes happen. Very cool lady and I’m looking forward to meeting her.
Another nice gent sent me an email. He was very understanding and I’ll be on his front porch picking it up this morning. He may come to It Must be Heaven tonight. If he likes what he hears, I hope to give him the sign back 🙂
Could you remove the illegally placed signs in the tree wells up Franklin and 29th as well?
They really should be on private property and not tree wells and power poles.
sorry deanna…zing! Have to agree with LHR @6…these signs look terrible posted all over the place… you know these can be legally removed and destroyed? If you want exposure…knock on the property owners door and get to know them…maybe if they support you and your ideas, they’ll let you post signs on their property.
taloose… again?
I have been walking the neighborhoods & I’ve met hundreds of people. I walked all of Libby Hill last Saturday: Broad, E Grace, E. Franklin, Libby Terrace, from 21st to 30th st. I knocked on EVERY door. I met and spoke with some really great supportive people and left a flier for those that weren’t home. The signs were supposed to go in the yards of those people on Libby Hill, not all over the place. Someone made a mistake.
I’m walking all Chimborazo (32nd to 35th) tomorrow and Fulton Hill on Sunday. I’ve been to every civic, tenant and commmunity meeting. I don’t just put in an appearance and leave. I stay and I listen.
There are 10 days to go. One of the reasons I’m running is for the preservation of your view of the James.
http://www.deannalewis4council.com/echoharbor.html
If the signs impact your view that much, please, pull them up if you cannot wait for me to correct the error. Please recycle, rather than trash them if you do. Thanks.
Sorry Deanna…I don’t buy it. It looks like the “someone” who “made a mistake” had a deliberate strategy in mind…to take advantage of every vacant/for sale property owner on Broad Street. Who gave that “someone” PERMISSION to place signs on private property? I happen to own one of those properties. I don’t appreciate your “someone” placing a sign in my yard to compete with the ‘for sale’ sign. And, yes, your sign went straight to the trash can. Please don’t try to spin this faux pas into “your desire to protect MY view of the James…” I’d appreciate a clean view from MY front door minus YOUR signs trashing the place. Question for you, if someone can’t effectively manage the simple process of campaign sign placement, why should somebody vote to place you in a position of increased responsibility? Thanks.
Deanna, now that the meet and greet is over, would you please also remove the signs in tree wells around 25th and Broad Street? If a resident requested signs in their yards, they would be in yards, not tree wells.
Signs are not cheap, I’ve worked campaigns before. Please be thoughtful about placement. You are wasting resources and making enemies at the same time. I’m glad for you that you finally raised enough money for signs, but think about where they are going, and quit blaming ‘someone.’
Thanks.
And furthermore Deanna, I don’t appreciate your cavalier attitude about this “mistake”. Nobody asked you to place these signs everywhere and encroach on both public and private property. Your response was basically…(loosely quoted)’I don’t have the time right now to come and correct the error…so you can take them down.’ That is irresponsible and unacceptable…the CORRECT response from you would be… I APOLOGIZE AND I WILL BE OUT RIGHT NOW TO COLLECT ALL OF THEM AND FURTHERMORE I WILL RECYCLE THEM. Please don’t impose on others time or property! I expect to see YOU marching IMMEDIATELY!
There was a similar thread on CHPN about Otis Brown’s signs, which were posted illegally on vacant buildings. If a politician overlooks the law while campaigning, what can we expect once they’re elected?
Ya’ll seem to be picking on just one candidate, but if you drive through the neighborhood, you will see signs placed illegally from most all candidates.
Taloose while you were asking Lewis to come remove the illegally placed political pollution from you area, i saw her and her helper putting her signs up here in the Fulton area at around 8:30 this morning. Doesn’t she have some cartoons to watch, or at least some responsibility to you and your neighbors first before she puts out more of these unwelcome eye sores on public property.
The Commonwealth’s Attorney has been notified of her violation of the City nuisance Ordinance article 3 section 38-111-116.
Remember any any citizen may abate the nuisance… without penalty. That means any citizen has every legal right to remove this trash.
It seems she now chooses to blatantly ignore the request of citizens and the law itself.
Politics as usual, the politician does as she pleases- damned be the citizens.
Drink up!
Bob@13…While it may seem that we are only singling out deanna, she is the only candidate with the sheer audacity to plant a sign in my front yard…she targeted the property since it’s currently empty and on the market. Take a drive down Broad and check out where [most] of the signs have been placed. In the front yards of vacant/for sale/for rent properties or in tree wells [city property]. If she worked so hard last Saturday meeting the residents of the neighborhood…why are these signs not placed in front of occupied homes? Robinson left a flyer and a sisn on my front porch to post if I chose to post it. Miss Lewis thinks she has the divine [right] to others’ property.
If she decides that she will take no action to correct her “error” today, I’ll have the police pay her a visit for littering. Maybe that will catch her attention. Several folks have pulled some of her signs from the tree wells and threw them on the sidewalk. Noiw there’s a contribution to the litter problem. How dare she!
Bob you are correct , the plethora of signs in the roundabout on 25th is plain disgusting and distracting to motorists. I spoke about the Lewis signs because they are popping up in Fulton all of a sudden. She is the only candidate that put the signs in a National Park, and blanketed Broad street, a main corridor for visitors to our fair city.
I have included Robinson’s and Newbille’s signage in my complaint to the Commonwealth’s Attorney General and the State Board of Elections.
All the candidates that have placed their signs illegally on public property should be ashamed. It shows their lack of respect for Richmond’s beauty and for the people that live in the areas.
Tisk, tisk, tisk, shame on these three and on the day of international 350 awareness. Check out 350.org and join us in Carytown today If you go to the candidate forum today at 3 o’clock ,at the Fulton Hill Community Baptist Church at 4908 Creedmore St. in Fulton Hill.. Let the candidates know your views on their signage and call the out on it.
Now I get it and see where you are going with this. It’s already becoming a nasty campaign, and a little silly. Especially since she has given her contact info to rectify the problem. Again, not the only one that’s guilty. Oh dear, How DARE she!
it speaks to the core of these individual’s character. Moves like these are self-serving, irresponsible, and lazy. Instead of gaining support and the proper clearance to post signs, these folks steamrolled their cause through regardless of whose rights were trampled. Once in office, they’ll do the same.
Hoo boy…I feel bad, now, that I created this tempest in a teapot!
Deanna contacted me immediately about this; there was no subversion. She made it a point to make a clean breast of things. To imply that she’s home on the computer looking up MLS listings to find vacant properties on which to advertise on is downright silly. I mean, really.
Let’s not take a pound of flesh and make her scapegoat for something we all hate- campaign advertising in general. It may not have been a Creigh Deeds sandwich board in my yard but I see plenty of those too. And careful when you start making personal attacks. That’s libel and like Mom says, Two Wrongs don’t make a Right.
@#19 Check out MLS is the silly assertion…It’s pretty clear which houses are for sale/for rent cause there is usually a real estate SIGN in the front yard…It doesn’t take a scientist to figure it out. And before you start spouting off support for “your newly found best friend” take a drive down Broad Street and see if my assertion is not true. It’s pretty clear. An easy way for Miss Lewis to correct this “WRONG” is to remove all of the signs from tree wells, parks, and privately property where she has no authorization to post. “Libel”…now that’s just plain silly. I suggest you do some research about the definition of libel.
For the record, I have no horse in this race and Robinson’s sign (or any candidate’s sign)is not in my front yard. This is simply about illegally placed signs, litter, and a lack of respect…plain and simple.
I was at the intersection of Forest and Glenside the other day and saw three guys taking down a huge Deeds sign and replacing it with one for McDonnell. The candidates may not be the ones putting the signs up and therefore not liable for the legality of their placement but they can make some effort to make sure that their supporters don’t cross the line.
Dear Toulouse… Interesting that you choose to attack me personally rather than just discuss the issue…whatEVER, buddy.
“Attack”, “MLS”, “Libel”…Odd
Ramzi, #21 I’ve worked on campaigns in the past (mostly at least state wide) that had campaign workers out at all hours of the night, pulling up opponents signs and replacing them with their own. Happens all the time. That’s part of why I reminded (or tried to remind) Deanna that she’s really wasting resources with putting them in tree wells.
I want to make an observation. Today, I rode with a friend to go somewhere in a town east of here. We departed and returned via the Nine Mile Road entrance and exit to 64, winding through neighborhoods north of Broad, until we got to Nine Mile Road. Robin Robinson has a LOT of signs, safely and nicely placed in yards of obviously inhabited houses. No for sale houses, no vacant houses. For a short tour, just take a ride out 31st Street, all the way to where it goes into Nine Mile. There are a few Newbille signs, and lots of Robinson signs. I was quite impressed. I saw two Bond signs, both in vacant lots on corners. But before ya’ll go accusing everyone of littering with signs, take a ride on a bike, or in a car, or a walk…it was interesting. What I saw was not littering, and not signs in tree wells. Of course, I didn’t see any Lewis signs at all in that area.
This will all be over in ten days, anyway.
Taloose,
I invite you to step outside of your version of the diminutive French Painter and give me your address. I’ve always had the balls to put myself out there using my name for critique of anything I’ve ever posted here rather than a pseudonym. I’d be happy to shake your hand and offer a personal apology or, listen patiently as you shout at me in person. My guess is that in person, face to face, you would take that extended hand, rather than shout repeatedly as you’ve done here, as this venue, is far from human.
This is the email address I offered in the first place if there was a problem: deanna@deannalewis4council.com
crd, my signs are there. In well established businesses that have served the community for decades who’s owners were happy to put them in their windows, on their storefronts, in the grass outside their stores.
You seem to be inferring that I’m not reaching out to the people in that area. Far from it. I’ve been on WCLM Radio taking their calls, listening to their concerns and answering their questions at least once a week at 5:00pm. My radio ads have been reaching thousands of people in that area a dozen times a day since September.
Bob, thank you. Katherine, you are a class act.
Miss Lewis…you know what the problem is..please correct it! Plain and simple… I don’t care to get to know you personally but, I don’t appreciate the actions that you CLEARLY are responsible for. You have been told what people are bothered by yet, you have taken no action to correct the issue. That speaks very loudly about your character and your willingness to listen to the concerns of others. Your main concern seems to be self-promotion. Please just answer this question…Do you think the actions that you and “somebody” are responsible for are appropriate and legal? That’s really all I want to know. No intended disrespect here…I don’t care to get to know you or anything about you and I don’t feel like having any personal conversation with you. I simply disagree with your actions (which are illegal) and want you to make it right. The longer that you dig your heels in on this issue, the more others become disappointed in what you stand for. Know this…understand the consequences. whether or not others have weighed in on this…they will agree that you need to take action.
Deanna –
Hate to tell you, but you were really sold a bill of goods if you were told WCLM reaches “thousands of people that area.”
WCLM is a tiny station with an extremely limited reach with a signal that doesn’t go very far from it’s Hull Street location; in other words, its total listenership is very small throughout the entire region, much less the 7th district.
I assume you payed about $10 for a 60 second spot which just proves how small their listenership is. For high rated stations in Richmond you would be paying in the hundreds of dollars per spot.
Good luck though and I think that certain people here have just been plain mean in the way they complained about your signs.
Oh come on, Deanna. There are signs blanketing the Chimborazo/Oakwoood/S Street area. They are placed in tree wells, in front of vacant or homes undergoing renovation, and even in the Church yard. And I asked, the Church did not approve the placement of the signs. No one asked their permission and they had not noticed the sign until I called them. It’s Sunday today, so I am sure it has been removed.
You must be hoping these folks will vote for you because they will remember your name once at the ballots. But you have not talked to them at all. Yes, maybe you have had a few meet and greets, but these neighbors did not attend those.
On the other hand, Robinson and Kenny have been going door to door discussing the issues with the neighborhood.
Robin Robinson and Garry Powell have made it to my home and spent time talking with me and answering questions. Neither are “one issue” candidates. Like all the candidates, they stand against irresponsible development and oppose Echo Harbor, however, they also understand there are equally important issues our district faces such as the flight of the working poor and middle classes because of schools, etc. Both candidates are natives of our city, attended RPS, and both are capable of representing constituents across economic lines. We need something different than the representative claiming to help the poor but using them instead (I’ve watched the poor sink lower over the years) nor do we need someone who will only be the voice of the affluent empty nesters concerned with architecture only.
Here is our chance to have a real neighbor represent us.
http://www.robinforcouncil.com
http://www.votepowell.net
I would say something about the others but I haven’t met them personally, although I’ve seen some on chpn and in forums. I did email Ms Lewis a while ago when she announced the possibility of running for council and I asked to speak with her in person and she never got back with me.
John, can you do an update on this poll?
I’ve got some relevant stuff coming out over the next few days. I’ll let that hit and then maybe repoll right before the election.
For those who don’t know about WCLM radio in the last Arbitron rating WCLM radio placed #17 out of 47 AM & FM stations in this market. WCLM placed #1 on the am dial for music and #3 on am with WRVA placing #1 and WRNL #2.
2008 the Mayor awarded WCLM as the Minority Business of the Year. The station has a 20 mile reach of Richmond, and each morning the station start off with Big John Trimble classic country music show who was also inducted into the Broadcaster Hall of Fame in Nashville,we also broadcast gospel,oldies,Latin music and live talk show. Some of our quest has include Gov.Tim Kaine,former Gov.Gilmore (3weeks ago) Wilder, and Warner along with Del. Joe Morrissey,Sheriff C.T. Woody,Sheriff Mike Wade,Mayor Jones,Del.Jenniffer McClellan,Councilwoman Reva Trammell,Ellen Robertson Senator Donald McEachin,Boxing Promoter Bert Sugarman, Ex-Football star Jim Brown, candidate Cynthia Newbille,Deanne Lewis, Betsy Carr,Clarence Kenney, Delore McQuinn just to name a few….
We broadcast at 1000 watts with a live internet broadcast at wclmradioonline.com which makes us broadcast around the world. We also did shows with Chris Maxwell when he was out front for low power radio which made it possible for him to get his station started.
To check out rating information go to
http://www.arbitron.com