RECENT COMMENTS
On crime stats for Union Hill and Church Hill North
In response to Church Hill being named the “10th Most Dangerous Neighborhood in America”, Matt Conrad of the Union Hill Civic Association had data provided by Lt. Laino of Sector 111 that brings some perspective to the designation (PDF). The data makes very clear what residents of the Union Hill and Church Hill North already know: crime is not only down from a few years ago, but is dramatically down from 6 and 7 years ago.
There were 205 violent or property crimes in Union Hill in 2003, last year there were but 75. Church Hill North saw 330 violent or property crimes in 2002, but only 117 in 2008. Somewhere in the middle of this historic decline, an area comprised of part of each of these neighborhoods was theoretically so bad statistically that it qualified as one of the most dangerous in the county.
In an email sharing Laino’s data with Union Hill residents, though, Conrad points out that “WalletPop predicted 169 violent crimes in the area they selected over the next year. In reality, there were only 27 violent crimes in the entirety of Union Hill and Church Hill North during the last full year” of data.
The original article draws data from an area that encompasses part of Church Hill North and part of Union Hill, an region that corrolates to census tract 207. Note that the area of comparison for the source article does not include the western half of what the city considers to be Union Hill, nor the northern third of Church Hill North between S Street and Nine Mile Road.
The WalletPop article makes comparisons “based on the aggregate crime data for the municipality containing that neighborhood averaged across the most recent three years of non-preliminary (final) data available from the FBI (2005, 2006, and 2007).†The data provided by Lt. Laino shows incident counts for Union Hill and Church Hill North for the years 2002-present. This data is also available online to citizens at the RPD website.
Glancing at the data, the 7 Union Hill homicides in 2005-2006 really stand out. Prior to this spring’s shocking and isolated incident, it had been almost 3 years since the last homicide in Union Hill, and at the time most folks would’ve been hard-pressed to remember the last serious incident in the neighborhood.
A listing of the 7 incidents brings back to light the regular violence around the ragged edges of Union Hill in those years. The 4 bolded incidents occurred in the area looked at for the WalletPop article.
- May 23, 2005 – Shooting at P and 20th Streets (the incident comes up online under Union Hill, but is actually a Fairmount address (PDF))
- July 14, 2005 – Murder at the Church Hill House on Burton
- October 6, 2005 – Domestic stabbing on 500 block of Mosby Street
- December 10, 2005 – Shooting at Jefferson Townhomes
- March 11, 2006 – Shooting at Jessamine and Burton
- April 26, 2006 – Stabbing at Church Hill House on Burton
- June 29, 2006 – Domestic shooting on 25th Street
For comparison, over the same 2 year span (2005 & 2006), Fairmount, Whitcomb, and Fairfield each had 4 homicides, Mosby shows 6 homicides, and Creighton is listed as also having had 7 homicides.
I hope the local news outlets will retract their earlier story or at least admit that it was based on fraudulent information…
Matt, John…. thanks for bringing this data forward!
We still have to keep CH North, and all of the city, on the radar though.
In the originating post “J” mentioned moving because of the violence – witnessing drug deals, poilice busts and so on. It’s understandable to not want to live in fear.
Ann menitoned someting important too “… what we need. A Friendly neighbor-hood that gets involved in keeping Church Hill as a Whole SAFE”.
None of us can turn a deaf ear to a gunshot and we cannot look the other way if we see something suspect and expect anything to change. The police cannot be everywhere and they rely on our eyes to keep them informed.
Happily, we will never know about the bullet that was dodged because someone picked up the phone and reported something that didn’t just look right, the robbery that was avoided because your neighbor on their porch looks out for you as much as you look out for them, or about the kids life that was saved because she was picked up after curfew and brought home.
The above report displays the kind of thoughtful research that REAL journalists engage in BEFORE their editors allow a story to be published.
Too bad AOL’s Money and Finance “editors” (the source of Wallet Pop) can’t be bothered to hire responsible reporters who know their job is to thoroughly research, triple check and report what is really happing with crime in a neighborhood. Not just some isolated blip on the crime stats for a single census tract.
Any demographer knows that urban neighborhoods are composed of MULTIPLE census tracts. And while one census tract might be a cluster of activity, it is balanced out by the other tracts surrounding it.
Was all that digging for stats and assembling the nuances of the data and census tracts time consuming and tedious? You bettcha, and that’s what responsible journalists, or caring neighborhood leaders, do to refute bad reporting.
This is just another example of a faux “online news source” like AOL “creating” news. Most of what’s on their “Money & Finance” page is simply a regurgitation of other news source’s stories.
Sadly, we’ve become so used to sloppy journalism on a mass scale that it barely outrages people anymore.
Matt and John,
Thanks so much for the REAL data!
This goes to show that this neighborhood is doing much better than WalletPop states and can only get better and better as more neighbors become involved.
I’ve only been here for five and a half years but would not want to live anywhere else (with the exception of, perhaps, ocean front).
Thanks again Matt and John. Good work!
Is there a civic association for Church Hill North?
Yes, the civic association for Church Hill North is “New Visions”.
That is incorrect. New Visions represents the south end of Fairmount: the area bound by Carrington, 25th Street, Fairmount, and Mosby. This is the area immediately north of Union Hill. The area north of Fairmount is represented by Unity Civic League.
Some of Church Hill North falls under the Church Hill Association, yes? Are there any other civic associations east of 25th Street?
John, #7, There used to be a Friends of Chimboazo Park, but I don’t know if it still exists.
Church Hill Association has for years had something in the by-laws that membership is not limited by the St. John’s Old & Historic District, so unless they’ve changed the by-laws that should still be in there. I know someone who was active in the original CHA and the phrase was meant to encourage membership from north of Broad as well as any other interested parties.
I am saddened that this story has so much attention when the internet site walletpop methodology is seriously flawed. I was the Commander on the Hill for 2 years in 2006 and 2007. We made great strides and posted over a 20% reduction in violent crime both years in Sector 111.
Much thanks goes to the citizens of Church Hill with their strong partnerships with RPD and their sense of community.
My best years in my 25-year career was my time as a Commander of the First Precinct. The partnerships and friendships forged will last a lifetime.
To the citizens of Church Hill – you rock! Thanks for all your continued support.
Major John Keohane
nbc12 has followed up with an article that actually links to this page and quotes Amanda Durst and Matt Conrad.
@9 – Thanks, Major Keohane, we DO rock!
@10 – John Murden, this site never ceases to amaze me – it’s almost like it’s driving the other news media sometimes! Yay!
In one month, Matt Conrad has had gotten the 1st precinct to sweep the criminal element off Venable Street (if you’ve walked/driven down it recently you’d notice the big change), had a letter about urban development published in Style, and gotten the local news media’s attention about these fictitious crime stats.
And this guy is simply a citizen who cares about his neighborhood. Now, if only whoever decides to run for the 7th District Council seat could get this involved in our community, we might actually have a council person who can get things done in the 7th.
Oh, my! How did I miss the period during which the criminal element disappeared from Venable Street? Those of us who live on Venable have been working for years to reduce that criminal element and while things on the street are certainly better, if the criminal element was gone its absence was only temporary. The improvements along our street are the result of many people working together.
Ann, you’re absolutely right. Folks have been working for YEARS to clean up Venable. And each year, it gets better.
My coments regarding Matt’s recent work with the 1st Precinct and the owner of the vacant lot at 24th and Pink, were not intended to overshadow all the good work that neighbors have already done on Venable.
However, I think I can safely say that even though Matt Conrad is a relative new comer (a few years, i think) he has become a galvanizing force in this neighborhood.
He has gracefully managed to bring together neighbors (e.g. property owners, renters, seniors citizens and younger newcomers, along with the biggest church in the area) in a way that no one else heretofore has.
In addition, his background working for the Attorney General’s office seems to give him an edge at communicating with law enforcement and helping us achieve our goals with public safety in Union Hill.
I’m not trying to give him credit for the work that others have done to make this neighborhood safer and more livable.
What I’m trying to say is he seems to be filling a void that had previously existed in our neighborhood. That of a (for better or worse,) a leader.
I want my next council person to be someone who can do the kind of things Matt has done recently in Union Hill: someone who can respond quickly and intelligently to a lousy media story. Someone who can bridge the gap between a slumlord (Bayou Properties) and the police department and make something positive happen.